Wednesday 18 November 2015

Sugar in Zambia: keeping prices down and creating more jobs

Sugar in Zambia: keeping prices down and creating more jobs

CUTS International Programmes Officer Faith Mwamba  pictures by Ashton Kelly Bunda, Pan African Radio 105.1FM and Zambian Developmental Media Alliance (ZADEMA)

CUTS International Programmes Officer Faith Mwamba  and Board Member Yusuf Dodia pictures by Ashton Kelly Bunda Pan African Radio 105.1FM and Zambian Developmental Media Alliance (ZADEMA)

CUTS International Board Member Yusuf Dodia pictures by Ashton Kelly Bunda Pan African Radio 105.1FM and Zambian Developmental Media Alliance (ZADEMA)

CUTS International Board Member Yusuf Dodia pictures by Ashton Kelly Bunda

 


...CUTS International Zambia Programmes Officer Faith Mwamba pictures by Ashton Kelly Bunda Pan African Radio 105.1FM and Zambian Developmental Media Alliance (ZADEMA)
Executive Summary
CUTS Lusaka has carried out a review of the sugar sector in Zambia. Our overall conclusion is that Zambia has the potential to attract investment from new sugar producers in the sector, which would support job creation and increase competition. This, overtime, would lead to a reduction in sugar prices for consumers.
The Opportunity
Zambia has immense potential to attract investment from new sugar producers in the sector, which would support job creation and increase competition, this, overtime, would lead to a reduction in sugar prices for consumers. This is because over 95% of inputs used in the production process for sugar can be locally sourced thereby making Zambian produced Sugar cheaper and more competitive on the export market.
We know that there has been some level of interest shown by investors to enter the market, however, we cannot explain why this has not happened. Investment by new producers would be good for the Zambian economy because it will support government’s policy, which was reiterated in the recent 2016 Budget, of diversifying the economy towards the agriculture sector, which would further reduce the country’s dependency on foreign currency inflow from one sector,  i.e mining.
Policy Options
We recognise that there are existing tax incentives provided by government in the agriculture sector. However, CUTS is of the view that more can be done for government to focus on attracting investment in the sugar sector. Government, through the different ministries (Trade, Finance and Agriculture), need provide to new incentives to new entrants and those operating at a smaller scale so that expansion in guaranteed.
In addition, CUTS feels that the fortification policy – whereby all sugar sold for household use in Zambia must be fortified with Vitamin A– is a barrier to investment and investors have been unable to infiltrate the market, as entrants in the market may need to invest in fortification equipment. However if the fortification policy is removed, this could put Zambian jobs at risk, as it would allow for easier imports. This trend is already seen in the border towns where sugar is smuggled into the country. If fortification is not required, CUTS argues that imports should then be controlled, perhaps through import tariffs. This it is hoped would protect jobs and make the importation of Sugar less lucrative. 
Case against open boarder policy
CUTS considered the case for opening up the Zambian market to full international competition.  However, we rejected this for two main reasons: First, the potential impact on jobs and exports.  Second, the fact that prices of Sugar, while still too high, do not appear to be as excessively high as previously thought.  The chart below shows how Zambian sugar prices, in US$, are not unusually high by regional standards.




Regional Price Trends of Household Sugar per 1 Kg


Lower Prices over time

While prices are not as excessively high as previously thought, sugar prices should be lower. Two pieces of evidence support this case:

§  Zambia is a low cost producer and there is no reason why sugar prices should be similar (in US$ terms) to a country like Botswana that imports Sugar. On-farm sugar productivity is high in Zambia. A 2010 report gave figures of 15.3 ERC tonnes per hectare for Zambia, compared with 5 tonnes per ha in Vietnam, 3.3 in Kenya and 1.4 in Bangladesh.  These productivity figures are confirmed by our own investigations, where commercial farm achieved 15.2 tonnes per hectare last season. Therefore as indicated it is not surprising that the cost of producing ERC sugar is lower in Zambia. The same paper reports costs of $US 169 per tonne in Zambia versus a World average of $US 263 (or just 64 percent of the World average cost). This makes it a very lucrative business.

§  In addition, new evidence and evidence in this report makes comparisons between Zambia Sugar and Kasama Sugar. This supports the possibility that the former charges up to ZMW1 more per 1 Kg bag of unrefined household sugar than it might if competition was stronger, as Kasama sugar is a smaller producer than Zambia sugar who enjoys large economies of scale.

If CUTS’ recommendations to attract more investment into the sector where adopted then this would reduce prices overtime. Competition, not only from existing players, but also from new players is required in the sector if consumer satisfaction and product diversification is to be guaranteed. More competition will ensure that only the firms that work to innovate but also become more efficient and better value, thereby the Zambian consumer will benefit.



Introduction
A scoping study undertaken by CUTS International questioning the price of sugar in Zambia showed that in mid-2014 Zambian Sugar was expensive as compared to the other neighbouring countries within the Southern African region.[1] This was in spite of Zambia producing all its own sugar, as well as being a net exporter and having high on-farm productivity figures. Some reports reviewed suggest that Zambia is ranked as one of the lowest cost producers of sugar in the world. The prices of sugar in Zambia had a previous history of being high and this was shown in several studies over the past years that have been carried out to assess whether there is any economic explanation behind the high prices of sugar. This observation is also shared by  Ellis, Singh and Musonda (2010)[2] who further show the retail price of sugar in Zambia ($/kg) is about 1.2 for Zambia, 1.05 for Kenya, 0.99 for Ghana, 0.66 for Vietnam and 0.57 for Bangladesh, making Zambia sugar the most expensive. They also showed that Zambia had one of the lowest sugar production costs in the world, at $169 per ton, when the world average was about $263 per ton. The same report also showed that Zambia was an efficient sugar producer compared to other countries, with the average sugar production (tonnes per hectare) being about 15.3 in Zambia, 5 in Vietnam, 3.3 in Kenya and 1.4 in Bangladesh. Chisanga (2012) further explains that domestic prices of sugar in Zambia were also very volatile, which can be attributed to the high correlation between the price of sugar and some economic fundamentals such as inflation, exchange rates and high cost of inputs.

On the export side, another study by Kalinda and Chisanga (2014)[3] explains that Zambia was also a net exporter of sugar, as more of the output is consumed by the external market than the domestic market. About 60% of the sugar produced in Zambia is exported while 40% is sold in the domestic market and about 75% of the domestically sold sugar[4] is sold directly to consumers while about 25% is sold to the industrial sector for the manufacture of foodstuffs and beverages

Many of these studies have inferred that Zambia Sugar, being a dominant player in the market, was abusing its dominant share, by setting prices abnormally high, an allegation which has been highly contested by Zambia Sugar. Today, however, sugar prices are about average compared with other regional economies, as shown in the graph on the next page.  For the reasons given above, not least the low production costs, lower sugar prices should be a policy objective for the Zambian government.  However, given that prices are not excessive compared with the wider region, lower prices should not be on the only policy goal. A key goal of this study was to look into how to achieve reduced sugar prices while also protecting and increasing employment in the sugar sector. 




Regional Price Trends of Household Sugar per 1 Kg[5]
Source: Knoema Website[6]
Sugar prices and the market structure in Zambia

Several concerns have been raised about the market structure as well as the prices of sugar in the market, which saw the sector being the subject of discussion and research over the past years. Indications on the ground are that sugar prices are high for both consumers and some sugar using industries (downstream users). There were also concerns about the market structure, which is highly concentrated with one dominant player. Allegations have been raised on the possibility of the high prices being a reflection of the lack of competition in the sector. When prices were high, it was common to suppose this was caused by excessive pricing of sugar by Zambia Sugar.  This was thought to be the reason for the high prices because Zambia Sugar (ZS) has a dominant share of the market, accounting for over 92 percent of what is sold domestically, and it is to some extent protected from external competition owing to the requirement that sugar be fortified with vitamin “A”.  Then the questions ensued. Does this mean then that ZS is able to charge high prices owing to import restrictions? However no real evidence to support this reason has been found.
So CUTS asked the questions: why are sugar prices high; was it due to high transport cost; was it due to the cost of fortification; was it due to recent capital investments by market players that had pushed the costs up; or was it due to the artificially high exchange rates which had made the shelf-price look high when compared internationally in US dollar prices with other countries in the region. Depending upon the reason, the study sought to find out what, if anything, should be done about it?
Key Ensuing Findings
On costs of production
Historic studies show low pre-refinement production costs, and none of the information collected by CUTS contradicts this conclusion. Sugar cane is grown in company plantations, and by both commercial and smaller contract farmers and then processed into sugar.  Sugar cane is sold at prices for Estimated Recoverable Crystals (ERCs) – a measure that describes the raw sugar content of sugar cane. Some cane is of a higher quality than others, and therefore produces more ERCs per tonne, and this is why the ERC measure is used for purchases. On-farm sugar productivity is high in Zambia. A 2010 report[7] gave figures of 15.3 ERC tonnes per hectare for Zambia, compared with 5 tonnes per ha in Vietnam, 3.3 in Kenya and 1.4 in Bangladesh.  These productivity figures are confirmed by our own investigations, whereas commercial farm achieved 15.2 tonnes per hectare last season.  Therefore it is not surprising that the cost of producing ERC sugar is lower in Zambia. The same paper reports costs of $US 169 per tonne in Zambia versus a World average of $US 263 (or just 64 percent of the World average cost).
The CUTS main report contains information about actual farm production costs for a variety of producers. These are then compared with the selling prices. The price paid by the refinery per tonne of ERC to a commercial farm in 2014 was ZMW 2,056. It is important to note at this point that prices vary slightly. One Irrigation Scheme received ZMW 2,100, while an Association received only ZMW 1,900. Productivity, costs and margins vary between sugar cane producers, but our assessment indicates a common margin of about 13 percent to cane producers. In summary the average input cost of sugar is about ZMW 2,000 per ERC ton. While the margin made by cane farmers does not seem to be excessive, there is no reason here to suppose that high shelf prices are caused by farmers. This is rested.
Costs with the Factory (Production costs)
Since none of the sugar companies provided the production cost of sugarcane on their estates, we cannot provide a division between production costs and the profit margins added when selling the finished product.  What we can say is that the cost of fortification appears to be extremely low. A 2006 study put the cost at 3 Ngwee per KG, and one sugar company said the cost of fortification to them is currently 5 Ngwee per Kg. Allowing for inflation, these figures are similar. In summary the cost of fortifying sugar in Zambia is not responsible for the apparent higher prices charged here than in neighbouring countries. The study was unable to identify refining costs, however, comparisons between Zambia Sugar and Kasama Sugar support the possibility that the former charges up to ZMW1 more per 1 Kg bag of unrefined household sugar than it might if competition in the sector was stronger.


Pricing by Sugar Producers
Pricing of sugar varies and there is some level of price competition among players. Kasama prices its sugar around ZMW 5.50 while a 1 kg ZS is pegged at ZMW 6.80 per 1 kg.
Going by this, it is clear that ZS may be pricing higher for its sugar, but probably by about or less than ZMW1 per Kg. Also, evidence suggests that prices are actually negotiated between the sugar producing companies and suppliers/wholesalers and the level of bargaining power and quantities being bought has a huge influence on the prices. The larger buyers use bulk purchases and their retail clout to push prices down. For example, it is evident that ZS does try to even out prices across the country, not adding transport costs according to location.
Wholesale, Retail and Transport
Wholesalers and retailers play a critical role in the sugar value chain and thus this study also paid particular attention to this issue. In the case of ZS, most of its unrefined household sugar is sold either to wholesalers or direct to retailers, in most cases through regional depots, inclusive of transport costs and inclusive of VAT. Therefore the cost of transport, loading and off-loading is included in the price charged.  When retailers in Livingstone were asked to share the price they paid for 1 kg of white sugar from ZS’s depots there, the responses ranged from ZMW 7.00 to ZMW 7.95 (an average of about ZMW7.50) and in Chipata from as low as ZMW5 up to ZMW7.76 (an average of ZMW6.38). In Lusaka, the average was about ZMW7.10. Surprisingly, the price for the same kilograms is higher in Monze about ZMW8.10. Monze is about 60 kilometres from Mazabuka and thus it is expected that the price would be lower. The former is the locality where production and milling happens while Monze is 60 kilometres as already indicated[8]. While it is somewhat surprising that places further from the point of production do seem to attract a slightly lower price, there is no consistent pattern. In fact it is probable that variations in selling price have more to do with the bargaining power of the purchaser and the quantities or bulk in which they purchase. While in our study we have made an effort to disaggregate for sizes of bales or packets in which sugar is sold, this is quite complicated to achieve, and these factors may also contribute to the variations observed. 
Meanwhile these figures provide some evidence that ZS seeks to spread the cost of transport across the Zambian market, rather than simply charging more for sugar the further you go from the point of sale in Mazabuka. This could also be recognition of the need for retailers near the border to compete with a certain amount of illegally imported sugar. The mark-ups on sugar prices by wholesalers and retailers vary widely, but on average are reasonable. Some retailers use sugar as a basic attraction and make little profit.
Transport costs
Interestingly, the study showed that per KG of sugar and costs are spread across the country and these are minimal. Although it is not advertised in the wholesale price, it is possible to make some estimate of the size of the transport component in total sale price. For example, there are some companies that buy sugar from ZS in Mazabuka and transport to other places themselves. ZS sells unrefined household sugar to a trading agent at an average of ZMW7 per Kg in Mazabuka. Note this is a bit below the average reported above, but this information is from a ZS licensed agent.
The transport cost from Mazabuka to Lusaka, according interviewed licenced trading agents with ZS is 9 Ngwee per Kg. This includes Mazabuka to wholesale warehouse, including loading and unloading, but not transfer to retailer, which is an extra 4 Ngwee. Therefore, the cost of the sugar plus transport to wholesale warehouse in Lusaka is ZMW7.09 per Kg or ZMW7.13 per Kg to point of sale to retailer. The interviewed agent disclosed that there is an additional mark-up of 3 percent on turnover, which would bring the price charged to ZMW7.34. However, when comparing the prices which retailers said in March 2015 at the time of the study, they paid to the trading agent for supplies, it is apparent that on average there is an additional 11 percent mark-up on turnover, based on a charge of approximately ZMW7.92 per Kg. If these figures are accurate, this represents a margin of 79 Ngwee for a transporting, handling and wholesale agent, which is a margin on costs of 600 percent.
However, what we may discern from this information is that the true cost of transport, without including profit, from factory to wholesale warehouse, is approximately 6 Ngwee per Kg per 100 km. As mentioned, Mazabuka to Lusaka is approximately 150 Km, and this costs 9 Ngwee. Lusaka to Chipata is about 500 Km, so on a purely pro-rata basis, transport costs from Mazabuka to Chipata may be approximately 40 Ngwee per Kg. Costs to the Copperbelt would be around 35 Ngwee per Kg.
In summary, average transport costs around the country from Mazabuka may be in the range of 30 Ngwee per KG. This may contribute to greater prices than in other regional countries with lower transport costs (not including transporters’ margins) but it cannot be the cause of all of the difference. 
A New factor
The graph at the beginning reveals that there were possible additional causes to the previous high prices. While costs of sugar cane production may be low owing to high productivity, actual costs such as labour time may have been relatively high owing to inflated exchange rates. Past exchange rates may have been unreasonably high owing to buoyant copper sales. But since these declined the value of the Kwacha may now be more realistic. Kindly note, It’s the rate of change that is a problem, not the rate as such. The price of sugar on the shelf, if it remains relatively stable in Kwacha terms,  which owing to its high local content in costs it may do,  is now quite close to the average.
In summary, sugar prices on the shelf may have been distorted owing to slight over-pricing, facilitated by a lack of competition. But the decline in the exchange rate (which reduces relative costs) means prices are now more comparable regionally.
ZS’s Export Markets
While the entire production for Kasama Sugar and Kafue Sugar only caters for domestic market, ZS produces only 40 percent of its product for the domestic market, of which 60 percent goes for export. The sugar exported is not directly comparable with household sugar because it’s refined sugar which is a different product from unrefined sugar that consumed locally. However, the international sugar market is currently extremely competitive and Sugar prices have fallen from as high as 17 cents per pound(Lb)[9] in early November 2014, it was only just over 10 cents per pound(Lb) by late August 2015, this is shown below.. 

World Sugar Prices US Cents per Lb
Source: Trading Economics[10]

ZS, being the only exporter, is therefore, already under extreme pressure on its sugar exports – though the fall in the Kwacha has great benefits to the company. Also the EU quota system is about to change, which will expose ZS to other world producers. Brazil produces 23 % of World sugar and sells cheaply and this provides competition for the European market. However, over 95% of the costs of production for sugar producers are locally sourced and the fall of the Kwacha should cushion the pressure against exports especially for ZS being the only exporter.  This means that the performance of the exchange rate that has negatively affected the kwacha, makes the sugar export market a more lucrative business, this is illustrated in the table below.













ZS Annual Profits from export market [11]
Annual profit in USD for the 2013/2014 financial year 
Annual profit ZMW at the rate[12] of $ 6.10 as of 31 March 2014 for the 2013/2014 financial year
Annual profit ZMW at the rate of $ 12.30 as of  02 October 2015 for the 2013/2014 financial year
143,001,475.41
872,309,000.00
 1,758,918,147.53
Annual profit in USD for the  2014/2015 financial year
Annual profit ZMW at the rate of $ 7.60 as of 31 March 2015 for the  2014/2015 financial year
Annual profit ZMW at the rate of $ 12.30 as of 02 October 2015 for the  2014/2015 financial year
117,697,894.74
894,504,000.00
1,447,684,105.30

In conclusion, ZS should be using such opportunities to subsidies domestic prices to cushion the poor on domestic prices and nonetheless sustain over 5,600 jobs in Zambia.  In addition there is also a opportunity for the Zambian government to attract investment from new sugar producers into the market. 
Policy Options: The Need for Competition?
Is there a need to introduce more competition into the Zambian Sugar market? The answer is outright yes. This could help to ensure that prices remain competitive. The process of economic rivalry between market players to attract customers is almost non-existent in the market. The need for a competitive situation where market contestability and competition comes not only from existing players, but also from new players is required in the sector if consumer satisfaction and product diversification is to be guaranteed. More competition will be a force which will ensure that only the firms that work hard innovate and respond to market dynamics will become more efficient and offer a greater choice of products at lower prices because of the fear that only the efficient ones will survive in the market. This ensures best possible utilisation of available resources. But how do we ensure that competition ensues. There are two, not necessarily mutually exclusive, options available;
1)      Open the market to imports by dropping the vitamin A fortification requirement. But this has to be driven through a quota system;  or
2)      Facilitate investment in domestic sugar production

If option 2 was to go by, government through the different ministries (Trade, Finance and Agriculture) need to walk the talk in providing new incentives to new entrants and those operating at a smaller scale so that expansion in guaranteed. This will also require transparency in the management and oversight of the sector. Addressing vested interest among government officials in the sector still is also highly required. Those serving in government positions should not be allowed to seat on any platforms of the different companies operating in the sector unless interest is declared. 
Policy Options 1: Dropping Import Controls?
Could allowing of sugar imports in the country bring sugar prices down? But evidently from the regional graph, this will not be by much. It has been argued in the past that entry to the market in Zambia has been prevented by the requirement to fortify with vitamin “A”. This, it is suggested, prevents imports and protects ZS from competition. This “policy” may be viewed as a protection mechanism for local players’ profits, but equally for Zambian jobs. However, the efficacy of the fortifications process is questionable as Vitamin A deficiency levels are still high standing at 53%[13].
If opening to imports was successful, it could, however undermine the sugar industry’s profitability and lead to reduced production volumes and loss of jobs. Therefore, a quota importation system could be permitted to allow for specified quantities of imports that would steer competition in the market, or introducing some sort of import tariff to make importation less lucrative  . Jobs could only be undermined if the current players in the market decide to remain fatigued. The jobs debated ought to be looked at broadly. For example, industrial sugar is an input to many downstream market players which, if aggregated, employs more than two times the estimated  5 600[14] jobs the sugar industry creates. Therefore, facilitating the growth of downstream industries is highly required and flexibility on the availability of options ought to be provided.
Policy Options 2: Facilitating Investment?
A second policy options would be for Zambia to facilitate investment in the sector, as this would bring jobs to Zambia. During this study CUTS learned through interviews with a sugar producer that there is actually a fourth sugar producer which is a recent entrant in the market but is yet to start production. 
This latter report should be considered with some caution; as such stories of investment in sugar production have circulated before, but have not come to fruition. However, the fact that it is being reported at some stage of development may indicate that the market may not be as closed as some suggest. Certainly if the Government wanted to adopt a market-orientated approach (rather than an interventionist one) to reducing sugar prices, encouraging or facilitating this kind of investment could be recommended. With current devaluation in the Kwacha, and the preponderance of local costs in sugar production, Zambia is now a cheaper place in which to produce for export than it was. If two more companies entered the market with the same or near the capacity of ZS, they would produce approximately about four times the jobs. One the other hand, more investment will yield competition – a remedy towards reducing the prices further.
In addition, CUTS feels that the fortification policy – whereby all sugar sold for household use in Zambia must be fortified with Vitamin A– is a barrier to investment and investors have been unable to infiltrate the market, as entrants in the market may need to invest in fortification equipment. However if the fortification policy is removed, this could put Zambian jobs at risk, as it would allow for easier imports.
Conclusion
Sugar is an important product for both household and sugar consuming industries. This is perhaps the reason why there is a great level of concentration among researchers and interest groups on the sector. The undertone in all research papers is a mere contribution towards finding a lasting solution to the increasing sugar prices.  Most papers carried on the sector have highlighted the secretive nature of the sector and that critical information is not easily divulged.  This is attested by CUTS, where an Industry player could not commit to giving critical information without entering in to a non-disclosure agreement. The mystery in this equation still brews speculation and further interest on the sector.   However, despite these factors, the CUTS paper was able to bring out key substantive information on the dynamics of the sector and a summery presentation of the key conclusions include;
  • Our assessment indicates that the margin made by cane farmers does not seem to be excessive and therefore, there is no reason here to suppose that high shelf prices are caused by farmers.
  • The cost of fortification appears to be extremely low, with one Sugar Company saying the cost of fortification to them is currently 5 Ngwee per Kg. Therefore, the cost of fortifying sugar in Zambia is not responsible for the apparent higher prices charged.
  • The study was unable to identify refining costs, however, comparisons between Zambia Sugar and Kasama Sugar support the possibility that the former charges up to ZMW1 more per 1 Kg bag of unrefined household sugar than it might if competition in the sector was stronger.
  • Pricing of sugar varies and there is some level of price competition among players. Kasama prices its sugar around ZMW 5.50 while a 1 kg ZS is pegged at ZMW 6.80 per 1 kg.
  • Prices are actually negotiated between the sugar producing companies and suppliers/wholesalers and the level of bargaining power and quantities being bought has a huge influence on the prices. The larger buyers use bulk purchases and their retail clout to push prices down.
  • Average transport costs around the country from Mazabuka may be in the range of 30 Ngwee per KG. This may contribute to greater prices than in other regional countries with lower transport costs (not including transporters’ margins) but it cannot be the cause of all of the difference.
  • Over 95% of the costs of production for sugar producers are locally sourced and the devaluation of the Kwacha, we assume, should cushion the pressure against exports that ZS, being the only exporter, feels with the drop of the world sugar prices on the export market.  This means that the performance of the exchange rate that has negatively affected the kwacha makes the sugar export market a more lucrative business.




[1] For the full Evidence Paper on which this policy paper is based see XXXX
[2] Ellis Karen, Singh Rohit and Chiwama Musonda, (2010), Assessing the Economic Impact of Competition: Findings from Zambia, Overseas Development Institute, London, 2010
[3] Kalinda Thomson and Chisanga Brian, (2014), Sugar Value Chain in Zambia: An Assessment of the Growth Opportunities and Challenges, Asian Journal of Agricultural Sciences 6(1): 6-15, 2014
[4] That is, 75% of the 40% that is sold in the domestic market
[5] Note details of the analysis of this graph is provided below.
[6] http://knoema.com/wzisqoe/food-prices
[7] Ellis Karen, Singh Rohit and Chiwama Musonda, (2010), Assessing the Economic Impact of Competition: Findings from Zambia, Overseas Development Institute, London, 2010
[8] Remember these amounts include transport, loading and off-loading
[9]Please note that pound (abbreviations: lb) is a unit of mass used in the imperial measurement system.
[10] http://www.tradingeconomics.com/commodity/sugar
[11] Note that the table is an assumption
[14] Zambia Sugar 2015 Annual Report